Autoři
Vorel, J. - Šilha, M., - Franke, D.
Publikováno v
In: 2016 Smart Cities Symposium Prague (SCSP). New York: IEEE Press, 2016. p. 1-6. ISBN 978-1-5090-1116-2.
Rok
2016
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Anotace
The residential mobility and transportation are two processes that significantly influence the physical and social characteristics of cities. This paper analyses the relation between the two processes by means of discrete choice simulation model. The objective of the exercise is to identify the suitable job accessibility indicators that would make use of available data and to examine, how these accessibility indicators influence the residential choices of individual actors in the Prague Metropolitan Area. The more general objective of the exercise is to indicate the potentials and constraints for the future implementation of the Land-Use Transportation Interaction Microsimulation Model that would support ex-ante evaluation of the proposed land-use and transportation policies in the Prague Metropolitan Area and by that to contribute to its smart planning and management. © 2016 IEEE.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
Vesmír. 2016, 95(2), ISSN 1214-4029.
Rok
2016
Související lidé
Anotace
Přicházející éra velkých dat naznačuje velký potenciál pro empirický výzkum měst a městských regionů a pro jejich plánování a řízení založené na datech. Mikrosimulační modely se mohou stát jedním z nástrojů, které umožní z obrovského množství dat získávat smysluplné informace a nové znalosti. Tím mohou napomoci osvícené správě měst (smart government).
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
Praha: Vydavatelství ČVUT v Praze, 2015. ISBN 978-80-01-05825-1.
Rok
2015
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Anotace
This book provides readers with an overview of basic urban simulation modeling methodology illustrated by eleven distinctive urban simulation models. Special emphasis is placed on the behavioral content of the models and the potential use of the models for policy analysis. The experimental part of this book explores the potentials and limits of urban micro-simulation modeling in the Czech Republic and provides methodological and technical guidance for its development and application.
Autoři
Vorel, J. - Franke, D., - Šilha, M.
Publikováno v
In: 2015 Smart Cities Symposium Prague (SCSP). New York: IEEE Press, 2015. p. 1-9. ISBN 978-1-4673-6727-1.
Rok
2015
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Anotace
Residential mobility significantly influences all other urban processes: the real estate market, the location of economic activities and public services. Especially, the residential mobility influences the travel patterns and demand for transportation services. Therefore, modeling residential mobility should be regarded as the precondition for “smart” spatial and transportation planning. Recent approaches to modeling of urban processes regard the urban systems from the perspective of individual human actors, their preferences, decisions and activities. The micro-simulation random utility discrete choice models explicitly represent decision-making processes of individual actors in their individual contexts and allow the residential mobility factors to be analyzed on the level of individual actors. The paper describes the application of experimental microsimulation model on the study of residential mobility in the Prague metropolitan region. It examines existing data from the point of view of availability and suitability for micro-simulation modeling, provides technical guidance for the application of micro-simulation models for scientific research and the practice of urban planning and illustrates possible outcomes of the microsimulation modeling.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
European Journal of Geography. 2015, 6(2), 69-84. ISSN 1792-1341.
Rok
2015
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Anotace
Over the last 20 years, urban micro-simulation models have been the focus of much research.
The advent of big data and the solid theoretical base represented by random utility theory,
consumer theory and operationalized by discrete choice models seemed to have opened
unlimited opportunities for urban micro-simulation. However, initial attempts to replace the
traditional aggregated comprehensive urban models with comprehensive micro-simulation
models – e.g. ILLUMASS, ILUTE, Oregon and UrbanSim – encountered several
methodological obstacles that lowered the overly enthusiastic original expectations.
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of micro-simulation modeling generally, and of residential mobility modeling specifically. The following methodological issues are discussed based on a series of experimental microsimulation models of residential mobility applied in the catchment area of the medium-sized town of Tábor in the Czech Republic: micro-data availability, methods of data disaggregation, the multicollinearity of environmental factors and the reliability of highly stochastic models.
Autoři
Vorel, J. - Grill, S.
Publikováno v
JOURNAL OF MAPS. 2015, 11 225-230. ISSN 1744-5647.
Rok
2015
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Anotace
Land-use control and planning instruments face new challenges amid growing pressure for urbanization and annexation of valuable agricultural land and natural areas. This paper presents the land-use change propensity map, which shows the local potential for specific land-use changes. Propensity is derived empirically on the basis of historical land-use changes, with an explicit evaluation of characteristics that contributed to land-use change.
Each step in creating a propensity map is described: selecting data that best represents land-use changes, identifying potential drivers of land-use change and the statistical inference of their impact on land-use change on the basis of observed historical land-use changes. The resulting propensity for land-use change is represented in the form of a binary logit model that evaluates the probability of specific land-use changes.
A series of propensity maps for the territory of the Tábor microregion in the Czech Republic was created to demonstrate the method. The scale of the propensity maps is 1:310,000, and they cover an area of 1002 km2. Each propensity map represents the specific propensity for conversion from non-urban uses to family, multi-family and individual recreation houses. The evaluated propensity can be further compared to existing or proposed land-use regulations.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
In: ebook of abstracts of AESOP annual congress 2014 "From control to co-evolution". Utrecht: Utrecht University, 2014, pp. 385. Available from: www.aesop2014.eu/
Rok
2014
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Anotace
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of micro-simulation modelling generally and to residential mobility modelling specifically. Following methodological issues are discussed based on application of several experimental micro-simulation residential location choice models to the population of a middle-sized town catchment area in Czech Republic: micro-data availability, methods of data disaggregation, the multicollinearity of environmental factors and the reliability of highly stochastic models.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
Acta Universitatis Carolinae, Geographica. 2014, 41(1), 83-97. ISSN 0300-5402.
Rok
2014
Související lidé
Anotace
Micro-simulation models have been increasingly used for studying various urban and regional processes. Here, two experimental microsimulation models are applied to the study of residential location choices of inhabitants of the Tábor micro-region. A wide range of environmental and socio-economic characteristics are analysed for their potential impact on individual residential location choices. The microsimulation approach proves to be useful for analysing not only housing, neighbourhood, and accessibility characteristics, but also of the interactions between the characteristics of the present and potential new residential locations of individual inhabitants and the role of their personal characteristics in their choice of a new residential location. The ability of the micro-simulation models to replicate the observed residential choices is evaluated by several quantitative indicators with special attention given to the stochasticity of the model behaviour, which is a typical feature of micro-simulation models. The limited availability of sufficiently disaggregated data describing the demographics of households, their socio-economic characteristics, and real estate market dynamics needs to be resolved in order to exploit the full potential of micro-simulation modelling in the future.
Autoři
Vorel, J. - Grill, S.
Publikováno v
In: Planning Support Systems for Sustainable Urban Development. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2013, ISBN 978-90-816960-2-9.
Rok
2013
Související lidé
Anotace
The ultimate objective of the project presented is to apply the theoretical concepts and the methodology of urban modelling to a sustainability assessment of local spatial development in Czech Republic. The approach is to replicate the urban growth dynamics of a catchment area of a medium-size town in the form of a simulation model, and to predict alternative scenarios of the future land-use pattern.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
In: Sborník příspěvků 3. letní školy Geocomputation in GIS s hlavním tématem Urban Modelling. Olomouc: Univerzita Palackého v Olomouci, 2013, ISBN 978-80-244-3652-4.
Rok
2013
Související lidé
Anotace
Východiska, motivace a využívání simulačních modelů v územním plánování. Mikro-simulační model stěhování obyvatel mikro-regionu Tábor. Datová základna pro aplikaci mikro-simulačních modelů v ČR.
Autoři
Vorel, J.
Publikováno v
In: Proceedings of CAMUSS: The International Symposium on Cellular Automata Modeling for Urban and Spatial Systems. Coimbra: Department of Civil Engineering of the University of Coimbra, 201
Rok
2012
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Anotace
Cellular automata emerged in the field of computer science to be used mainly by proponents of complexity theory to demonstrate the relation between the micro and macro behaviour of complex systems. The cellular automata are based on rather strong assumptions of the autonomy of individual automata behaviour, homogeneity of their characteristics and transition rules. This paper claims that those features make cellular automata suitable for the study of general processes of urban growth, spread of diseases or propagation of innovations, but less for study of land use change processes in general. The main reason is the artificiality of cellular automata that makes them ignore many aspect of the physical, economic and legal reality causing the important drivers and agents of land use change being improperly represented. Several decades of effort to implement cellular automata for land use simulation have brought many interesting innovations that made the usability of cellular automata for land use studies much more acceptable. The most significant adaptations of cellular automata are described in the background of several existing, well known simulation models.
Autoři
Peltan, T. - Franke, D. - Vorel, J., - Maier, K.
Publikováno v
In: 2018 Smart City Symposium Prague. New York: IEEE Press, 2018. ISBN 978-1-5386-5017-2.
Rok
2018
Související lidé
Anotace
Spatial planning in the Czech Republic uses the regional plans Development Principles to ensure sustainable regional development. The Development Principles delimit Development Areas and Urban Centers the areas of future concentrations of development activities. We assume that these instruments can help increase commuting-related transport energy efficiency. To test the assumption we propose three scenarios: Trend scenario, Development Areas scenario and Urban Centers scenario. The scenarios represent different spatial distribution of economic and residential activities in Karlovy Vary region as expected in the future. We evaluate these scenarios using a double-constrained transportation model and evaluate the resulting spatial pattern of energy consumption, modal-choice based adaptation and sensitivity of potential accessibility to changes in car transportation costs. The results reveal that concentration of economic and residential activities in Development Areas and Urban Centers generally increases commuting-related transport energy efficiency, but often decreases the efficiency in peripheral areas of the region. We conclude that all planning policies aiming at concentrated development should be carefully evaluated to increase transportation energy efficiency, but also to prevent increasing spatial disparities of transport energy efficiency of peripheral areas.